The first findings to result from a
collaboration between Seattle Children's Research Institute and
Microsoft data scientists provides expecting mothers new information
about how smoking before and during pregnancy contributes to the risk of
an infant dying suddenly and unexpectedly before their first birthday.
According to the study published in Pediatrics, any amount
of smoking during pregnancy -- even just one cigarette a day -- doubles
the risk of an infant dying from sudden unexpected infant death (SUID).
For women who smoked an average of 1-20 cigarettes a day, the odds of
SUID increased by 0.07 with each additional cigarette smoked.
"With this information, doctors can better counsel pregnant women
about their smoking habits, knowing that the number of cigarettes smoked
daily during pregnancy significantly impacts the risk for SUID," said
Dr. Tatiana Anderson, a researcher in Seattle Children's Center for
Integrative Brain Research and lead author on the study. "Similar to
public health campaigns that educated parents about the importance of
infant sleep position, leading to a 50% decrease in sudden infant death
syndrome (SIDS) rates, we hope advising women about this risk will
result in less babies dying from these tragic causes."
If no women smoked during pregnancy, Anderson and her co-authors
estimate that 800 of the approximately 3,700 deaths from SUID every year
in the U.S. could be prevented, lowering current SUID rates by 22%.
Data deep dive provides detailed view of smoking's impact on SUID risk
To better understand how smoking contributed to SUID risk, the
researchers used computational modeling techniques to analyze maternal
cigarette smoking habits for all U.S. live births from 2007 to 2011.
Of the about 20 million live births included in their analysis, over
19,000 deaths were attributed to SUID with the specific cause of death
occurring from SIDS, an ill-defined and unknown cause, or accidental
suffocation and strangulation in bed.
Beyond overall cigarette consumption, the researchers also looked at
how smoking before pregnancy, and cutting back or quitting smoking
during pregnancy, affected SUID risk.
Compared to the over half of pregnant smokers who did not reduce
their smoking during pregnancy, women who reduced cigarette consumption
by the third trimester saw a 12% decrease in SUID risk. Successfully
quitting smoking was associated with a 23% reduction in risk.
Their analysis also showed that mothers who smoked three months
before pregnancy and quit in the first trimester still incurred a higher
risk of SUID compared to non-smokers.
Anderson says the data from this study supports public health efforts
aimed at encouraging women to quit smoking well before pregnancy.
"The most important takeaway is for women to understand that quitting
smoking before and during pregnancy by far results in the greatest
reduction in SUID risk," she said. "For pregnant women unable to quit
entirely, every cigarette they can eliminate will reduce the odds of
their child dying suddenly and unexpectedly from SUID."
One of the study's co-authors, Juan Lavista, Senior Director of Data
Science, AI For Good Research Lab at Microsoft, explains how the
research team applied Microsoft Artificial Intelligence (A.I.)
technology to better understand SUID and potentially save lives.
"Using A.I., we built machine learning models that analyzed millions
of pieces of data on child births and deaths, including mothers' smoking
histories, allowing us to do something that was not done before: assess
the impact that each additional cigarette has on SUID at this level of
granularity," he said.
"Through our AI for Humanitarian Action
initiative, Microsoft data scientists will continue studying other
causes of SUID alongside Seattle Children's and SUID experts around the
world."
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